Monday, February 8, 2010

Global Warming has GIVEN US GREAT Horror Story's! are they story`s, truth or false predictions?

';Global warming has created a new deity (Gore) and a whole bunch of Worshippers.Global Warming has GIVEN US GREAT Horror Story's! are they story`s, truth or false predictions?
Not a horror story, it's a nightmare. I believe the lion's share of the predictions will prove to be true, at least to some degree. As a better understanding of some of the dynamics unfolds, there will be revisions and new predictions.





This is a planetary wake up call, and the nightmares will take different form over the next few decades as delayed effects kick in, and mitigation measures begin to unfold in earnest.





Watch what you eat before bedtime and reduce your carbon footprint, you should sleep just fine.Global Warming has GIVEN US GREAT Horror Story's! are they story`s, truth or false predictions?
The warming is real, but the real horror story is that politicians are using it as an excuse to implement pointless new taxes.





Here are some figures from ExxonMobil that I propose we work with for a quick estimate until someone offers better figures:


http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/news鈥?/a>





ExxonMobil's Energy Outlookpredicts nearly a 40 percent rise in CO2 emissions through 2030. What is driving that growth?





As populations and economies expand, energy use rises, resulting in increased CO2 emissions.


About 80 percent of the anticipated growth in emissions is expected to stem from developing countries, such as China and India, as they continue to modernize and develop their economies. Remember that 2.5 billion people today lack access to modern energy. These growth predictions, which are consistent with other forecasts, show the challenge of achieving meaningful emissions reductions when developing countries are working to bring their citizens the quality of life that we in the more industrialized world take for granted.








Can meaningful emissions reductions be achieved without the developing countries?





There are certainly many opportunities to reduce emissions in the industrialized world, and this will help to slow the rate of growth of global greenhouse gas emissions. But with the developing world's share of global energy use expected to rise from about 50 percent today to almost 60 percent by 2030, it is hard to see how any substantive decrease in the world's emissions total can be achieved without the participation of countries where emissions are rising most rapidly.


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So if developing nations have 60% of emissions of that 140% of today global emission rate, in 2030 developing nations alone will emit at a level equivalent to 84% of today's global emissions.





To examine the impact U.S. proposals, lets finish the calculation... Let's grab one current bill proposed, Liberman Warner, and see what its 70% decrease in CO2 by 2050 would achieve by 2030. The time period is about 40 years, 2030 is about halfway into it, so reductions will be about 35% by 2030. Let's assume the rest of the developed world matches that reduction rate. So instead of a rise to 40% of that 140%-of-today number (equal to 56% of today's world emissions), we'll say 1/3 less than today's 50% of global emissions... about 34%.





No one knows what carbon reduction plan well pick or how well it'll work, but assuming a bill like Warner Lieberman works perfectly as planned, global emissions will (conservatively) GROW to 118% of today's level by 2030.





Global warming not only won't be resolved, it'll be accelerating. We will have spent our economic reserves and trashed personal and national finances in the process.





But wait, didn't we reduce the problem? Sure, there's that 1/3 reduction... 16% of today's global emissions. So CO2 forcing will have grown to 118% instead of 134% of today's emissions (about 12% lower overall). Worst of all, we'll still be completely screwed, and global emissions will still be growing!





So here's the punch line: someone please explain to me, after we've endorsed their building of coal power plants for a couple more decades, how we're going to convince the developing countries to reduce their carbon emissions at that point?





How will global emissions ever decline?





Does any country have the automatic ';right'; to ';develop';, with today's harmful technologies, now that we understand the consequences?
The models are being made right now from the evidence, so any stories would have to be written next.
Global Warming is real.

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